Posts Tagged‘issues’

The Difference Between Real Growth and Speculation (or The BitCoin Circlejerk Problem).

I had given up on writing on BitCoin because of the rather toxic community of people that seemed to appear whenever I wrote about it. They never left comments here, no instead they’d cherry pick my articles and then never attempt to read any of my further writings on the subject and then labelling me as a BitCoin cynic. It had gotten to the point where I simply couldn’t stomach most BitCoin articles because of the ensuing circlejerks that would follow afterwards where any valid criticism would be met with derision usually only found in Call of Duty matches. But the last couple months of stratospheric growth and volatility have had me pulling at my self impost reigns, just wanting to put these zealots in their place.

Since I can’t find anything better to post about it seems that today will be that day.

BitCoin Price Chart Jan13 to Dec13The last time I posted about BitCoins they were hovering around $25 (this was at the start of the year, mind you), a price that was not seen for a long time previously. It began a somewhat steady tend upwards after that however it then had another great jump into the $100~$200 range something I long expected to be completely unsustainable. It managed to keep around that area for a long time however but the end of October saw it begin an upward trend that didn’t show many signs of stopping until recently and the past couple weeks have been an insane roller coaster ride of fluctuating prices that no currency should ever undergo.

Much of the initial growth was attributed to the fact that China was now becoming interested in BitCoins and thus there was a whole new market of capital being injected into the economy. Whilst this might have fuelled the initial bump we saw back in the end of October the resulting stratospheric rise, where the price doubled in under a month, could simply not be the result of new investors buying into the market. The reasoning behind this is the fact that the transaction volumes did not escalate at a similar pace meaning those ridiculously unsustainable growth rates were driven by speculative investors looking to increase the value of their BitCoin portfolios, not a growing investor base.

The anointed champions of BitCoin won’t have a bar of that however, even when the vast majority of forums were flooded with people who were crying when they cashed out at $400, lamenting the fact they could have had 3 times more if they’d only waited another week. As I’ve said dozens of times in the past the fact that the primary use of BitCoin right now is speculative investment is antithetical to its aspirations to become a true currency. Indeed the fact that it’s deflationary means that it inherently encourages this kind of action rather than being a medium for the transfer of wealth between parties. Indeed the inflationary aspect of fiat currencies, which BitCoiners seem to hate for some reason, encourages people to spend it rather than simply hanging on to it.

The flow on effect of this rampant speculation is the wild fluctuations in value which make using it incredibly difficult for businesses. Indeed any business that was selling goods for BitCoin prior to the current crash has lost money on any goods they sold simply because of the fluctuations in price. Others would argue that typically the retailers are better off because the price of BitCoin trends upwards but history has shown that you simply can’t rely on that and it’s guaranteed that unless you exchange your BitCoins for hard currency immediately after purchases you’re likely to hit a period of instability where you’ll end up on the losing end of the equation.

Whilst I’m sure I’ve lost all the True BitCoin Believers at this point I feel I have to make the point that I think the idea of cryptocurrencies are great as they’d be a great alternate method for transferring wealth across the world. BitCoin has some fundamental issues, many of which can’t be solved by a simple work around here or there, and as such whilst I won’t advocate its wholesale abandonment I would encourage the development of alternatives to address these issues. Unfortunately none have been particularly forthcoming but as BitCoin continues to draw more attention to itself I can’t imagine they’re too far off and then hopefully we can have the decentralized method of transferring wealth all BitCoiners like to talk about.

 

Gravity: An Amazing (Albeit Highly Unscientific) Film.

It should come as no surprise that my favourite movie genre is science fiction. Even though I was born long after the original Star Wars trilogy had finished watching it with my parents is still one of the fondest memories I have and that has long since bloomed into a passion for the genre. Of course this also feeds into my love of sciences as whilst I also enjoy fantasy, in all its forms, nothing quite compares to plausible futures that are based on real science. Whilst I understand that scientific accuracy will often take a back seat when the narrative requires it I can’t help but feel compelled to point out some of the more obvious flaws, especially when it’s such a big movie like Gravity.

Gravity 2013 WallpaperNow before I launch into this let me just be clear: I absolutely enjoyed Gravity. Whilst I was sceptical about George Clooney and Sandra Bullock being able to bring life to the roles they were given it didn’t take me long to warm to their characters. I was also very surprised by how much tension I felt for multiple different scenes, something which I don’t typically feel, at least not to that extent. All this, combined with the beautiful cinematography culminates in a movie that’s thoroughly enjoyable even if you take the hard line with science like I do. With all that being said though there are some points which bear mentioning and should have you not seen the movie I’ll advise you to skip reading on.

PLOT SPOILERS AHOY

The first thing that I, and several others, have taken issue with is the notion that from the orbit of the Hubble Space Telescope you’d be able see both the International Space Station as well as the Chinese Tiangong station (which is way more developed than current plans indicate, but that’s another story). Even if all of them shared identical orbits, which they don’t, the Hubble is in an orbit that’s some 200KM above the ISS and Tiangong making any naked eye visual impossible. Following on from this the idea that you’d be able to then travel between them becomes somewhat difficult as the energy required to do the plane change manoeuvres would be far above the capabilities of Manned Manoeuvring Unit. Indeed the backup plan NASA had for a shuttle that had suffered a catastrophic failure event such as the one in Gravity was to send another shuttle up there to rescue them, dubbed STS-400, which was the reason why we saw 2 fully fuelled shuttles on their respective launch pads the last time we serviced the Hubble.

I’m sort of able to forgive that for the sake of story however one moment that I won’t was when Bullock is holding onto Clooney’s tether and he says he has to let go or they’ll both be doomed. You see at that particular point there’s no more forces acting on them as once they got tangled up and stopped moving all their momentum had been transferred to the ISS, rendering them at equilibrium. If Bullock had simply tugged on the tether slightly Clooney would have then started drifting lazily towards the ISS and Bullock could have pulled herself back along the parachute cords. I would’ve let that slide if it was a minor side point but it’s one of the main turning points of the movie and unfortunately it just has no basis in reality whatsoever.

One thing I was also going to pan Gravity for was the use of fire extinguishers as thrusters since I figured the amount of delta-v available in them wouldn’t have been enough to provide any meaningful thrust. As it turns out, depending on what kind of extinguisher you have, there could be as much as 100m/s in them, a heck of a lot of thrust by any means. Whilst you’d be far more likely to send yourself into an unrecoverable spin if you were using them in the way shown in Gravity it does lend some credence to the idea of using it to correct your trajectory in order to intercept something else.

PLOT SPOILERS OVER

There were also numerous other minor details but compared to the previous few I mentioned I don’t think they’re worth digging into. Whilst there really were some cringe inducing moments from a science perspective it is a highly enjoyable film, even if you’re not into the whole space scene. It’s also worth it to see it in 3D, something I don’t say often, as the producers have taken care to use 3D as a tool rather than slapping it on in order to increase the ticket price. It might not be super hard sci-fi but then again not many films are and ones of Gravity’s calibre are even rarer.

 

I’m Done Waiting, Google.

I’ve been using my Nokia Lumia 900 for some time now and whilst it’s a solid handset Windows Phone 7 is starting to feel pretty old hat at this point, especially with the Windows Phone 8 successor out in the Lumia 920. However I had made the decision to go back to Android due to the application ecosystem on there. Don’t get me wrong for most people Windows Phone has pretty much everything you need but for someone like me who revels in doing all sorts of esoteric things with his phone (like replicating iCloud levels of functionality, but better) Android is just the platform for me. With that in mind I had been searching for a handset that would suit me and I, like many others, found it in the Nexus 4.

Google Nexus 4 Sold Out

 

Spec wise its a pretty comparable phone to everything else out there with the only glaring technical fault being the lack of a proper 4G modem. Still its big screen, highly capable processor and above all stock Android experience with updates that come direct from Google make up for that in spades. The price too is pretty amazing as I paid well over 50% more for my Galaxy S2 back in the day. So it was many months ago that I had resigned myself to wait for the eventual release of the Nexus 4 so I could make the transition back the Android platform and all the goodness that would come along with it.

Unfortunately for me the phone went on sale at some ludicrous time for us Australians so I wasn’t awake for the initial run of them and missed my chance at getting in on the first bunch. I wasn’t particularly worried though as they had a mailing list I could join for when stock would be available again and I figured that after the initial rush it wouldn’t be too hard to get my hands on one of them. However the stock they got sold out so quickly that by the time I checked my email and found they were available again they had sold out, leaving me without the opportunity to purchase one yet again. Thinking that there’s no way that Google would be out of stock for long (they never were for previous Nexus phones) I resigned myself to wait until it became available again, or at least a pre-order system came up.

Despite stories I hear of handsets being available for some times and tales of people being able to order one at various times  I have not once seen a screen that differs from the one shown above. Nearly every day for the past 2 months I’ve been checking the Nexus site in the hopes that they’d become available but not once have I had the chance to purchase one. Now Google and LG have been pointing fingers in both directions as to who is to blame for this but in the end that doesn’t matter because both of them are losing more and more customers the longer these supply issues continue. It doesn’t help when they announce that AT&T will start stocking them this month which has to mean a good portion of inventory was diverted from web sales to go them instead. That doesn’t build any good will for Google in my mind especially when I’ve been wanting to give them my money for well over 2 months now.

And with that in mind I think I’m done waiting for it.

For the price the Nexus 4 looked like a great device but time hasn’t made the specifications look any better, especially considering the bevy of super powerful smartphones that debuted at CES not too long ago. I, along with many other potential Nexus 4 buyers, would have gladly snapped up one of their handsets long ago if it was available to us and the next generation wouldn’t have got much of a look in. However due to the major delays I’m now no longer considering the Nexus 4 viable when I might only be a month or two away from owning something like the ZTE Grand S which boasts better specifications all round and is probably the thinnest handset you’ll find. Sure I’ll lose the completely stock experience and direct updates from Google but after waiting for so long the damage has been done and I need to find myself a better suitor.